方法对比

	Gravity Model of Trade	Computable General Equilibrium
领域	经济学	经济学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003	1960
提出者	Jan Tinbergen (empirical); Anderson & van Wincoop (structural)	Leif Johansen; developed by Herbert Scarf, John Shoven & John Whalley
类型	Structural econometric model of bilateral trade flows	Multi-market numerical equilibrium simulation model
开创性文献	Anderson, J. E., & van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170–192.	Shoven, J. B., & Whalley, J. (1992). Applying General Equilibrium. Cambridge Surveys of Economic Literature. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521319867
别名	Gravity Equation, Trade Gravity Model, Structural Gravity, Anderson-van Wincoop Model	CGE Model, Applied General Equilibrium, AGE Model, Walrasian Simulation Model
相关	2	3
摘要	The gravity model of trade explains bilateral trade flows by analogy to Newton's law of gravitation: trade between two economies is proportional to their economic sizes and inversely related to the trade costs (such as distance) between them. First applied empirically by Jan Tinbergen in 1962 and given a rigorous theoretical foundation by Anderson and van Wincoop in 2003, the structural gravity model shows that trade depends not only on bilateral barriers but on those barriers relative to each country's overall, multilateral resistance to trade.	A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a numerical simulation of an entire economy in which optimizing producers and consumers interact through markets that all clear simultaneously. Building on Walras's general-equilibrium theory and a benchmark social accounting matrix, a CGE model is calibrated to reproduce a base-year economy and then solved for the new vector of prices and quantities that would prevail under a counterfactual policy — a tax reform, a tariff change, a carbon price — capturing how the shock reverberates and re-equilibrates across every market.