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| Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality× | 李-卡特模型× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 人口学 | 人口学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1860 | 1992 |
| 提出者≠ | Benjamin Gompertz & William Makeham | Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter |
| 类型≠ | Parametric mortality (hazard) law for adult ages | Stochastic mortality forecasting model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115, 513–583. DOI ↗ | Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Gompertz-Makeham Model, Makeham's Law, Gompertz Law of Mortality, Gompertz-Makeham Ölümlülük Yasası | LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 2 |
| 摘要≠ | The Gompertz-Makeham law is the foundational parametric model of adult human mortality. Benjamin Gompertz showed in 1825 that the force of mortality rises exponentially with age, and William Makeham added an age-independent background term in 1860 to account for deaths from causes unrelated to ageing. The combined law expresses the hazard of death as a constant plus an exponentially increasing component, capturing the dominant shape of adult mortality with just three parameters. | The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections. |
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