方法对比

	Field Anomaly Relaxation	La Prospective Morphological Scenarios
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1974	2006
提出者	Russell Rhyne	Michel Godet (LIPSOR, Conservatoire national des arts et metiers)
类型	Morphological scenario-construction pipeline based on anomaly reduction and sequencing	Combinatorial scenario-construction pipeline within La Prospective
开创性文献	Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems - Social Messes: Decision Support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer.	Godet, M. (2006). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool (2nd ed.). Economica. ISBN: 9782717852448
别名	FAR, Field Anomaly Relaxation Method, Rhyne FAR, Sectoral Morphological Scenario Method	Godet Morphological Scenarios, Prospective Scenario Building, French School Scenario Method, Morphologie des scenarios
相关	3	4
摘要	Field anomaly relaxation (FAR) is a morphological scenario-construction method developed by Russell Rhyne in the 1970s for picturing how a whole societal or strategic system might evolve over time. It describes the situation through a small set of sectors — broad dimensions such as governance, technology, or values — each characterized by several alternative states, and arrays them as a morphological field whose combinations represent possible 'snapshots' of the system. Many of those combinations are internally inconsistent, so FAR 'relaxes' the field by removing anomalous configurations, leaving only coherent states of the world. Its distinctive final move is temporal: the surviving configurations are sequenced into plausible paths of change, producing scenarios as journeys from the present through a chain of consistent future states.	Within the French school of la prospective developed by Michel Godet, morphological scenario construction is the integrating stage that turns the outputs of structural and actor analysis into a small set of coherent images of the future. Building on Fritz Zwicky's morphological method, Godet decomposes the studied system into a set of dimensions or components, attaches to each a few mutually exclusive hypotheses about how it might evolve, and treats the Cartesian product of these hypotheses as the morphological space of all conceivable futures. Because that space is combinatorially large, the method's analytical work lies in reducing it: pruning combinations that are internally incoherent, implausible, or incompatible with the strategies of key actors, until a handful of contrasted, self-consistent scenarios remain. Distinct from general morphological analysis, this is the scenario-building application that consumes the variables identified by MICMAC and the actor positions mapped by MACTOR.