方法对比

	Expectancy-Disconfirmation Tourist Satisfaction	Destination Net Promoter Analysis
领域	Tourism Recreation	Tourism
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1980	2003
提出者	Richard L. Oliver	Frederick Reichheld (Net Promoter Score); adapted to destination advocacy
类型	Cognitive model of satisfaction from expectation-performance disconfirmation	Single-item recommendation-likelihood metric and advocacy-segmentation pipeline
开创性文献	Oliver, R. L. (1980). A Cognitive Model of the Antecedents and Consequences of Satisfaction Decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 17(4), 460-469.	Reichheld, F. F. (2003). The One Number You Need to Grow. Harvard Business Review, 81(12), 46-54.
别名	Expectation-Disconfirmation Model, Disconfirmation of Expectations Paradigm, Tourist Satisfaction Disconfirmation Analysis	Destination Advocacy Score, Destination Recommendation Index, Tourist Net Promoter Measurement, Destination Word-of-Mouth Likelihood Score
相关	3	4
摘要	The expectancy-disconfirmation paradigm is the dominant theory of consumer satisfaction and, applied to tourism, the foundation for understanding why tourists are satisfied or disappointed. Set out in Richard Oliver's 1980 cognitive model, the paradigm holds that satisfaction is not determined by how good an experience is in absolute terms but by how the experience compares with prior expectations: when perceived performance exceeds expectations there is positive disconfirmation and satisfaction rises, when it falls short there is negative disconfirmation and satisfaction falls, and when it matches there is confirmation. In tourism this explains why the same destination can delight one visitor and disappoint another depending on what each anticipated. The analysis measures expectations and perceived performance, derives the disconfirmation between them, models how disconfirmation and expectations drive satisfaction, and links satisfaction to outcomes such as intention to revisit and to recommend.	Destination net promoter analysis adapts the Net Promoter Score, introduced by Frederick Reichheld (2003), to the measurement of destination advocacy. It rests on a single survey question, how likely a visitor is, on a 0-to-10 scale, to recommend the destination to a friend or colleague, and converts the answers into a compact indicator of word-of-mouth potential. Respondents are sorted into promoters, passives and detractors, and the score is the percentage of promoters minus the percentage of detractors. The metric is attractive for destinations because, as Litvin, Goldsmith and Pan (2008) emphasise, word-of-mouth is one of the most influential information sources in tourism, where intangible products are hard to judge before consumption; a destination's promoters become its advocates, spreading recommendations that drive future visitation, especially through electronic word-of-mouth.