方法对比

	动态反事实影响评估	面板事件研究
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1986–2009	1990s–2020s (modern panel formulation)
提出者	Robins (1986); Lechner (2009) for sequential treatment settings	Formalized by Freyaldenhoven, Hansen, Perez-Orive & Shapiro (2021); widely applied in finance (Fama et al. 1969) and policy evaluation
类型	Causal inference / program evaluation	Quasi-experimental / causal panel design
开创性文献	Robins, J. M. (1986). A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period — application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Mathematical Modelling, 7(9-12), 1393-1512.	Freyaldenhoven, S., Hansen, C., Perez-Orive, J., & Shapiro, J. M. (2021). Visualization, Identification, and Estimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design. NBER Working Paper 29170. National Bureau of Economic Research.
别名	dynamic CIE, dynamic treatment evaluation, time-varying counterfactual analysis, longitudinal counterfactual evaluation	event-study regression, dynamic DiD, relative-time regression, distributed-lag panel model
相关	6	4
摘要	Dynamic Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (dynamic CIE) extends standard counterfactual program evaluation to settings where treatment is assigned sequentially across multiple periods. Rather than comparing a single treated versus untreated state, it estimates the causal effect of entire treatment trajectories or regimes, accounting for how intermediate outcomes and time-varying covariates feed back into subsequent treatment decisions.	A panel event study estimates the dynamic causal effect of a treatment or policy by regressing an outcome on a full set of relative-time indicators — one for each period before and after the event — while controlling for unit and time fixed effects. The resulting coefficient plot shows how the treated units diverged from untreated units at each point in calendar time relative to their treatment date, making both pre-treatment trend violations and post-treatment effect trajectories immediately visible.