方法对比

	动态反事实影响评估	Marginal Structural Model (MSM)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1986–2009	2000
提出者	Robins (1986); Lechner (2009) for sequential treatment settings	James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernan, Babette Brumback
类型	Causal inference / program evaluation	Causal model / semiparametric weighting
开创性文献	Robins, J. M. (1986). A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period — application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. Mathematical Modelling, 7(9-12), 1393-1512.	Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550-560.
别名	dynamic CIE, dynamic treatment evaluation, time-varying counterfactual analysis, longitudinal counterfactual evaluation	MSM, MSM-IPTW, marginal structural Cox model, weighted structural model
相关	6	5
摘要	Dynamic Counterfactual Impact Evaluation (dynamic CIE) extends standard counterfactual program evaluation to settings where treatment is assigned sequentially across multiple periods. Rather than comparing a single treated versus untreated state, it estimates the causal effect of entire treatment trajectories or regimes, accounting for how intermediate outcomes and time-varying covariates feed back into subsequent treatment decisions.	A marginal structural model is a causal modeling framework designed to estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment in the presence of time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by prior treatment. By reweighting observations with inverse probability of treatment weights, MSMs create a pseudo-population in which confounding is eliminated, enabling unbiased estimation of causal treatment contrasts even when standard regression adjustments would fail.