方法对比

	动态贝叶斯模型平均	动态变分推断
领域	贝叶斯	贝叶斯
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
起源年份	2010	2014–2015
提出者	Raftery, Karny & Ettler	Bayer, Osendorfer, Krishnan and colleagues
类型	dynamic ensemble / model combination	Bayesian approximate inference
开创性文献	Raftery, A. E., Karny, M., & Ettler, P. (2010). Online prediction under model uncertainty via dynamic model averaging: Application to a cold rolling mill. Technometrics, 52(1), 52-66.	Krishnan, R. G., Shalit, U., & Sontag, D. (2015). Deep Kalman Filters. NIPS 2015 Workshop on Advances in Approximate Bayesian Inference.
别名	DMA, dynamic model averaging, time-varying BMA, online Bayesian model averaging	sequential variational inference, temporal variational inference, variational inference for state-space models, DVI
相关	6	6
摘要	Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging (DMA) extends standard Bayesian model averaging to settings where the best predictive model may change over time. It maintains a probability distribution over a set of competing models and updates that distribution sequentially as new observations arrive, allowing model weights to evolve rather than remaining fixed across the entire sample.	Dynamic variational inference extends the variational inference framework to sequential and time-series settings by positing a structured approximate posterior that respects the temporal ordering of latent states. It jointly learns a generative model of how hidden states evolve over time and a recognition network that maps observed sequences back to those latent states, optimising a sequential evidence lower bound (ELBO).