方法对比

	动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型	可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型	向量自回归 (VAR) 模型
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2007	2002	2005
提出者	Smets & Wouters; An & Schorfheide (Bayesian DSGE estimation)	Lofgren, Harris & Robinson (standard IFPRI CGE model in GAMS); Walrasian general equilibrium theory	Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
类型	Micro-founded macroeconomic general equilibrium model	Numerical general equilibrium model	Multivariate time-series model
开创性文献	Smets, F. & Wouters, R. (2007). Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach. American Economic Review, 97(3), 586–606.	Lofgren, H., Harris, R.L. & Robinson, S. (2002). A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS. IFPRI Microcomputers in Policy Research, 5.	Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer.
别名	DSGE, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, micro-founded macroeconomic model, Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli (DSGE)	computable general equilibrium, applied general equilibrium model, Hesaplanabilir Genel Denge Modeli (CGE)	vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
相关	5	3	4
摘要	A DSGE model is a micro-founded macroeconomic general equilibrium model that combines the optimising decisions of households, firms, and government under rational expectations. Popularised for empirical policy work by Smets and Wouters (2007) and given its Bayesian estimation framework by An and Schorfheide (2007), it is the standard tool for central-bank policy analysis, fiscal-shock simulation, and the study of business-cycle fluctuations.	A Computable General Equilibrium model is a numerical equilibrium framework that represents the input-output relationships among all sectors, factors of production, households, and foreign trade in an economy through a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Grounded in Walrasian general equilibrium theory and formalised in the standard IFPRI model of Lofgren, Harris and Robinson (2002), it simulates the economy-wide effects of policy shocks such as tax reform, trade liberalisation, or environmental policy.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).