方法对比

	Deterrence Analysis	Routine Activity Theory
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1968	1979
提出者	Cesare Beccaria & Jeremy Bentham (classical); Gary Becker & Daniel Nagin (modern)	Lawrence E. Cohen & Marcus Felson
类型	Theory and empirical analysis of how punishment deters offending	Theoretical framework for explaining the occurrence of predatory crime
开创性文献	Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the twenty-first century: A review of the evidence. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263.	Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608.
别名	Deterrence Theory, Certainty-Severity-Celerity Analysis, Perceptual Deterrence Analysis, Focused Deterrence Analysis	RAT, Routine Activities Approach, Crime Triangle Framework, Cohen-Felson Theory
相关	4	4
摘要	Deterrence analysis studies how the threat and imposition of legal punishment discourage crime. Rooted in classical criminology and formalized in Gary Becker's economic model, it distinguishes the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment, separates perceived from objective sanction risk, and uses quasi-experimental and perceptual evidence — synthesized by Daniel Nagin — to test how much, and through what channels, punishment actually deters.	Routine activity theory explains predatory crime not by the supply of motivated offenders but by the everyday structure of legal activities that brings offenders, targets, and the absence of guardians together in space and time. Proposed by Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson in 1979, it argues that crime rates can rise even when offender motivation is constant, because changes in how people work, shop, and spend leisure time alter the opportunities for crime.