方法对比
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| 确定性离散事件仿真× | 确定性马尔可夫模型× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1960s–present | 1993 |
| 提出者≠ | Banks, J.; Carson, J. S.; Nelson, B. L. (codified); roots in 1960s simulation pioneers (Tocher, Conway) | Sonnenberg, F. A. & Beck, J. R. |
| 类型≠ | Simulation — deterministic event-driven model | Cohort state-transition model with fixed transition probabilities |
| 开创性文献≠ | Banks, J., Carson, J. S., Nelson, B. L., and Nicol, D. M. (2010). Discrete-Event System Simulation (5th ed.). Prentice Hall. ISBN: 9780136062127 | Sonnenberg, F. A., & Beck, J. R. (1993). Markov models in medical decision making: a practical guide. Medical Decision Making, 13(4), 322–338. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Deterministic DES, Fixed-Input DES, Non-Stochastic Discrete-Event Simulation, Deterministic Event-Driven Simulation | DMM, Deterministic Markov Chain, Cohort Markov Model, Fixed-Parameter Markov Model |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Deterministic Discrete-Event Simulation (Deterministic DES) models a system as a sequence of events occurring at precise, pre-specified times using fixed input parameters. Unlike stochastic DES, no probability distributions are sampled; every arrival, service time, and resource availability is known in advance, making runs fully reproducible and producing a single definitive output trajectory. | A Deterministic Markov Model is a cohort-level state-transition model in which all transition probabilities, state utilities, and costs are assigned single fixed values and the model is solved analytically in a single pass. Widely used in health technology assessment, policy analysis, and operations research, it traces a hypothetical cohort through mutually exclusive health or system states over discrete time cycles, accumulating expected outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or costs. |
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