方法对比

	Delphi Method for Strategy Foresight	Cross-Impact Analysis
领域	战略管理	战略管理
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1975	1968
提出者	Harold Linstone & Murray Turoff; Gene Rowe & George Wright	Theodore Gordon & H. Hayward; Olaf Helmer
类型	Iterative structured expert-elicitation process for foresight	Conditional-probability simulation of interacting future events
开创性文献	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948	Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116.
别名	Corporate Delphi Foresight, Strategic Expert-Panel Forecasting, Policy Delphi for Strategy, Iterative Expert Elicitation for Foresight	Cross-Impact Matrix Method, Cross-Impact Forecasting, Conditional-Probability Futures Analysis, Event Interaction Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	The Delphi method is a structured process for combining the judgments of a panel of experts on questions where hard data are scarce - long-range forecasts, emerging technologies, and strategic uncertainties - through several rounds of anonymous response and controlled feedback. Linstone and Turoff's 1975 collection The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications established the canonical design and its variants, including the policy Delphi used to explore strategic options rather than to pin down a single estimate. Rowe and Wright's 1999 International Journal of Forecasting review distilled the evidence on what makes Delphi work, identifying anonymity, iteration, controlled statistical feedback, and aggregation of the final round as the procedure's defining features. In strategy and corporate foresight, Delphi is used to forecast technology timelines, prioritize uncertainties, and build expert consensus to inform long-horizon decisions.	Cross-impact analysis is a forecasting technique that models how a set of possible future events influence one another, so that forecasts account for the fact that real events are interdependent rather than isolated. Theodore Gordon and H. Hayward introduced the cross-impact matrix method in their 1968 Futures paper, motivated by the observation that judgmental forecasts such as Delphi estimate the likelihood of each event separately and ignore that the occurrence of one event can sharply raise or lower the odds of others. Olaf Helmer's 1977 work refined the approach, distinguishing the original correlational formulation from a causal cross-impact model and addressing the internal-consistency problems that plagued early matrices. The method specifies prior probabilities for events and conditional 'cross-impact' probabilities between them, then simulates the system to produce internally consistent joint outcomes and revised probabilities.