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卫生经济学中的决策分析模型×Markov 模型在卫生经济学中的应用×
领域卫生经济学卫生经济学
方法族Process / pipelineProcess / pipeline
起源年份19751983
提出者Pauker & Kassirer (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)
类型MethodMethod
开创性文献Pauker, S. G., & Kassirer, J. P. (1975). Therapeutic Decision Making: A Cost-Benefit Analysis. New England Journal of Medicine, 293(5), 229-234. DOI ↗Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458. DOI ↗
别名decision analysis, decision tree, decision model, health economic modelMarkov model, state transition model, cohort simulation
相关55
摘要Decision analytic modeling is a systematic framework for comparing health interventions by integrating evidence on probabilities, outcomes, costs, and patient preferences into a quantitative model. Developed by Pauker and Kassirer in 1975, decision analysis structures clinical uncertainty and economic trade-offs, enabling transparent comparison of treatment options and identification of optimal strategies. Used in health technology assessment, clinical practice guideline development, and resource allocation decisions.A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration.
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ScholarGate方法对比: Decision Analytic Modeling · Markov Model in Health Economics. 于 2026-06-20 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare