方法对比

	Cross-Impact Matrix Method	Intuitive Logics Scenario Planning
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1968	1995
提出者	Theodore J. Gordon & H. Hayward	SRI International / Royal Dutch Shell tradition; Paul J. H. Schoemaker (codification)
类型	Probabilistic cross-impact simulation pipeline for interdependent events	Deductive scenario-construction pipeline using two critical uncertainties
开创性文献	Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: A tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Cross-Impact Matrix Forecasting, Conditional-Probability Cross-Impact, Gordon-Hayward Cross-Impact, Probabilistic Cross-Impact Simulation	Intuitive Logics, 2x2 Scenario Matrix, Deductive Scenario Method, SRI Scenario Planning
相关	3	3
摘要	The cross-impact matrix method is a quantitative forecasting technique that asks how the occurrence of one future event changes the probability that other events will occur. Introduced by Theodore Gordon and H. Hayward in 1968, it begins with a set of forecast events and their initial probabilities and then captures the interactions among them in a matrix of conditional probabilities. Rather than forecasting each event in isolation, the method runs repeated Monte Carlo trials in which events occur or fail to occur and their cross-impacts propagate, updating the probabilities of the remaining events. The output is a revised, internally interactive set of event probabilities and a distribution over coherent futures, making explicit the web of mutual influence that simple independent forecasts ignore.	Intuitive logics is the most widely used family of scenario-planning methods, in which a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about the future is constructed deductively from a few critical uncertainties. Rooted in the practice pioneered at SRI International and at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, and codified for strategic thinking by Paul Schoemaker in his 1995 Sloan Management Review article, the approach asks a planning team to identify the driving forces shaping a focal decision, rank them by how much they matter and how uncertain they are, and select two critical uncertainties that become the orthogonal axes of a two-by-two matrix. The four quadrants define four contrasting but coherent futures, each developed into a narrative. The aim is not to predict but to stretch managers' mental models and to stress-test strategy against a manageable spread of qualitatively different worlds.