方法对比

	Cross-Impact Balance Analysis	Field Anomaly Relaxation
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2006	1974
提出者	Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle	Russell Rhyne
类型	Semi-quantitative scenario-construction pipeline	Morphological scenario-construction pipeline based on anomaly reduction and sequencing
开创性文献	Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006). Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 334-361.	Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems - Social Messes: Decision Support Modelling with Morphological Analysis. Springer.
别名	CIB Analysis, Cross-Impact Balances, Balance Algorithm Scenario Analysis, Qualitative Systems Analysis (Weimer-Jehle)	FAR, Field Anomaly Relaxation Method, Rhyne FAR, Sectoral Morphological Scenario Method
相关	4	3
摘要	Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis is a semi-quantitative foresight method that turns a panel of qualitative expert judgments into a small set of internally consistent scenarios. Introduced by Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle in 2006, CIB describes a system as a set of descriptors, each of which can take one of several discrete future states, and asks experts to judge, pairwise, how strongly each state promotes or restricts every other state. These judgments form a cross-impact matrix; a balance algorithm then searches the combinatorial space of state combinations for configurations in which every descriptor's chosen state is the one most strongly supported by all the others. These self-consistent combinations are the scenarios. CIB has become a standard tool for building qualitative socio-technical scenarios, including the shared socio-economic pathways used in climate research.	Field anomaly relaxation (FAR) is a morphological scenario-construction method developed by Russell Rhyne in the 1970s for picturing how a whole societal or strategic system might evolve over time. It describes the situation through a small set of sectors — broad dimensions such as governance, technology, or values — each characterized by several alternative states, and arrays them as a morphological field whose combinations represent possible 'snapshots' of the system. Many of those combinations are internally inconsistent, so FAR 'relaxes' the field by removing anomalous configurations, leaving only coherent states of the world. Its distinctive final move is temporal: the surviving configurations are sequenced into plausible paths of change, producing scenarios as journeys from the present through a chain of consistent future states.