方法对比

	Criminal Trajectory Clustering	Life-Course Criminology Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2010	1993
提出者	Daniel S. Nagin; Christophe Genolini & Bruno Falissard (KmL)	Robert J. Sampson & John H. Laub
类型	Algorithmic clustering of longitudinal offending trajectories	Theoretical framework and longitudinal analytic strategy for offending over the life course
开创性文献	Nagin, D. S. (2005). Group-Based Modeling of Development. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674016866	Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674176058
别名	Offending Trajectory Clustering, Longitudinal Offending Cluster Analysis, Trajectory Shape Clustering, Crime-Curve Clustering	Age-Graded Theory of Informal Social Control, Sampson-Laub Life-Course Theory, Developmental Life-Course Criminology, Life-Course Theory of Crime
相关	4	5
摘要	Criminal trajectory clustering is the broad family of methods that group individuals by the shape of their longitudinal offending curves. Rather than committing to a single statistical model, it spans algorithmic approaches — k-means for longitudinal data, distance-based clustering of trajectory shapes, and likelihood-based latent class growth — and treats the choice of clustering method itself as a modeling decision validated by fit and stability criteria.	Life-course criminology analyzes both continuity and change in offending across the entire life span, anchored in Sampson and Laub's age-graded theory of informal social control. The core claim is that social bonds that emerge at different ages — strong marriages, stable employment, military service — function as informal social control that can redirect criminal trajectories, so that change is possible at any age and is not fully determined by childhood propensity.