方法对比

	Conflict Recurrence Analysis	Peace Duration Analysis
领域	International Relations	International Relations
方法族	Survival analysis	Survival analysis
起源年份	2004	2003
提出者	Civil-war recurrence literature (e.g., Barbara F. Walter)	Conflict-duration literature (e.g., Caroline Hartzell & Matthew Hoddie on post-civil-war peace)
类型	Survival/repeated-events analysis of renewed conflict	Time-to-event (survival) analysis of peace spells
开创性文献	Walter, B. F. (2004). Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 371–388.	Hartzell, C., & Hoddie, M. (2003). Institutionalizing peace: Power sharing and post-civil war conflict management. American Journal of Political Science, 47(2), 318–332.
别名	Recurring Civil War Analysis, Conflict Relapse Analysis, Repeated-Conflict Survival Analysis, Conflict Recidivism Analysis	Duration of Peace Analysis, Post-Conflict Peace Survival Analysis, Peace Spell Analysis, Time-to-Conflict-Recurrence Analysis
相关	3	3
摘要	Conflict recurrence analysis studies why and when conflicts that have ended return, treating renewed war as a time-to-event outcome. Most civil wars in recent decades have occurred in countries with a prior war, making recurrence a central puzzle. Using survival and repeated-events models — as in Barbara Walter's (2004) analysis of recurring civil war — researchers model the hazard that a post-conflict country relapses into violence as a function of how the war ended and the underlying conditions, while accounting for the fact that the same country can experience multiple conflict spells.	Peace duration analysis applies survival (time-to-event) methods to study how long peace lasts after a conflict ends and what makes it endure or collapse. The unit is the post-conflict peace spell, observed from a settlement or cessation until conflict recurs or the observation is censored. Modeling the hazard that peace fails as a function of how the conflict ended and the structural conditions — as in Hartzell and Hoddie's (2003) study of power-sharing after civil war — reveals which arrangements, such as institutionalized power sharing or peacekeeping, lengthen the survival of peace.