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| 队列-要素人口预测× | 生命表分析× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 人口学 | 人口学 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Survival analysis |
| 起源年份≠ | 2001 | 1984 |
| 提出者≠ | Preston, Heuveline & Guillot | Demographic/actuarial tradition; Chiang |
| 类型≠ | Demographic projection pipeline | Age-structured mortality estimator |
| 开创性文献≠ | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2 | Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2 |
| 别名 | Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu | Mortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosu |
| 相关 | 3 | 3 |
| 摘要≠ | Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide. | A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike. |
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