方法对比

	Ecosystem-Service Choice Experiment	Participatory Scenario Planning
领域	Environmental Economics	Environmental Sociology
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1998	2003
提出者	Nick Hanley, Robert E. Wright & Vic Adamowicz	Garry D. Peterson, Graeme S. Cumming & Stephen R. Carpenter
类型	Random-utility discrete-choice model for stated-preference valuation	Multi-stakeholder pipeline for exploring plausible environmental futures
开创性文献	Hanley, N., Wright, R. E., & Adamowicz, V. (1998). Using Choice Experiments to Value the Environment. Environmental and Resource Economics, 11(3-4), 413-428.	Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003). Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World. Conservation Biology, 17(2), 358-366.
别名	Discrete Choice Experiment for Ecosystem Services, Stated-Preference Choice Modelling, Attribute-Based Environmental Valuation, Choice Modelling of Ecosystem Services	Exploratory Scenario Planning, Participatory Futures Scenarios, Stakeholder Scenario Development, Social-Ecological Scenario Planning
相关	3	3
摘要	A discrete choice experiment is a survey-based, stated-preference method for valuing changes in ecosystem services that have no market price. As set out by Hanley, Wright and Adamowicz in 1998, respondents are shown a series of choice sets, each offering alternatives described by a common set of attributes — including environmental features such as water quality, biodiversity, or habitat area, and a cost or price attribute — and asked to pick their preferred option. Grounded in random utility theory and Lancaster's view of goods as bundles of attributes, the method models each choice as the selection of the highest-utility alternative and estimates how much utility each attribute contributes. Dividing an attribute's coefficient by the cost coefficient yields the marginal willingness to pay for that attribute, allowing economists to put a monetary value on ecosystem-service improvements.	Participatory scenario planning is a structured, multi-stakeholder method for exploring how a social-ecological system might unfold under irreducible uncertainty, rather than predicting a single most-likely future. Drawing on the scenario tradition formalized for conservation by Peterson, Cumming and Carpenter in 2003, it brings together researchers, managers, and affected communities to identify the forces driving change, isolate the critical uncertainties that matter most, and build a small set of contrasting yet plausible and internally consistent narratives. Candidate policies are then stress-tested across these alternative futures to find strategies that remain acceptable no matter which future arrives. Because the scenarios are co-produced, the method also builds shared understanding and social capital among participants who may begin with divergent interests.