方法对比

	贝叶斯回归断点设计	倾向得分匹配
领域	因果推断	研究统计学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2004-2016	1983
提出者	Karabatsos & Walker; Chib & Jacobi	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Bayesian causal inference / quasi-experimental	Method
开创性文献	Karabatsos, G., & Walker, S. G. (2004). Coherent inference in regression discontinuity designs with a Bayesian nonparametric approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(468), 1121-1131.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	Bayesian RDD, Bayesian RD, Bayes RDD, Bayesian regression-discontinuity	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	Bayesian Regression Discontinuity Design (Bayesian RDD) embeds the classical RD framework — which estimates a local causal effect at a known assignment cutoff — within a Bayesian inferential engine. Prior distributions are placed on the regression functions on either side of the cutoff and on the treatment-effect parameter, yielding a full posterior distribution over the causal estimand rather than a single point estimate with a frequentist p-value.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.