方法对比

	贝叶斯回归断点设计	贝叶斯双重差分法
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2004-2016	2015-2023
提出者	Karabatsos & Walker; Chib & Jacobi	Li & Marchand (formal Bayesian DiD framework); Brodersen et al. (Bayesian causal inference in time series)
类型	Bayesian causal inference / quasi-experimental	Bayesian causal inference / panel regression
开创性文献	Karabatsos, G., & Walker, S. G. (2004). Coherent inference in regression discontinuity designs with a Bayesian nonparametric approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(468), 1121-1131.	Li, F., & Marchand, J. (2023). Bayesian inference for difference-in-differences. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 509-529.
别名	Bayesian RDD, Bayesian RD, Bayes RDD, Bayesian regression-discontinuity	Bayesian DiD, Bayes DiD, Bayesian diff-in-diff, Bayesian panel causal estimator
相关	5	5
摘要	Bayesian Regression Discontinuity Design (Bayesian RDD) embeds the classical RD framework — which estimates a local causal effect at a known assignment cutoff — within a Bayesian inferential engine. Prior distributions are placed on the regression functions on either side of the cutoff and on the treatment-effect parameter, yielding a full posterior distribution over the causal estimand rather than a single point estimate with a frequentist p-value.	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences applies Bayesian statistical inference to the classic DiD design, replacing frequentist point estimates with full posterior distributions over the treatment effect. This yields not only an estimate of the causal effect but also a coherent probability statement about its magnitude and uncertainty, making it especially useful when sample sizes are modest or informative prior knowledge is available.