方法对比

	贝叶斯安慰剂检验	贝叶斯双重差分法
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2010-2015	2015-2023
提出者	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Bayesian causal impact context); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (placebo permutation tradition)	Li & Marchand (formal Bayesian DiD framework); Brodersen et al. (Bayesian causal inference in time series)
类型	Robustness check / falsification test	Bayesian causal inference / panel regression
开创性文献	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Li, F., & Marchand, J. (2023). Bayesian inference for difference-in-differences. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 509-529.
别名	Bayesian falsification test, Bayesian permutation placebo, Bayesian robustness check, Bayesian in-time placebo	Bayesian DiD, Bayes DiD, Bayesian diff-in-diff, Bayesian panel causal estimator
相关	5	5
摘要	The Bayesian Placebo Test is a falsification strategy for causal inference that applies Bayesian inference to placebo scenarios — either fake treatments in the pre-intervention period, on unaffected units, or at fictitious cut-offs — to verify that observed treatment effects cannot plausibly arise by chance or from a misspecified model. It integrates prior information and yields posterior distributions of placebo effects for direct probabilistic comparison.	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences applies Bayesian statistical inference to the classic DiD design, replacing frequentist point estimates with full posterior distributions over the treatment effect. This yields not only an estimate of the causal effect but also a coherent probability statement about its magnitude and uncertainty, making it especially useful when sample sizes are modest or informative prior knowledge is available.