方法对比

	贝叶斯马尔可夫模型	马尔可夫模型
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1990s–2000s	1906
提出者	Briggs, A.; Sculpher, M.; and broader Bayesian statistics community	Andrei Markov
类型	Probabilistic state-transition simulation	Probabilistic state-transition model
开创性文献	Briggs, A., Sculpher, M., Claxton, K. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press, Oxford. ISBN: 9780198526629	Norris, J. R. (1997). Markov Chains. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. ISBN: 9780521633963
别名	Bayesian Markov Chain Model, Bayesian State-Transition Model, BMM, Bayesian Cohort Simulation	Markov Chain, Discrete-Time Markov Chain, DTMC, Markov Process
相关	4	5
摘要	A Bayesian Markov model is a state-transition simulation method that combines Markov chain cohort modeling with Bayesian statistical inference. By placing prior distributions on transition probabilities and updating them with observed data, the approach propagates full parameter uncertainty through the simulation, yielding posterior distributions over outcomes such as costs, life-years, or quality-adjusted life-years rather than single-point estimates.	A Markov Model represents a system as a finite set of states and specifies the probability of moving from one state to another at each time step. By capturing only the current state — not the full history — it enables tractable analysis of complex dynamic processes across health economics, engineering reliability, operations research, and social-science modeling.