方法对比

	Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity	贝叶斯工具变量 (Bayesian IV)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2001 (fuzzy RD identification); 2016 (Bayesian formulation by Chib & Jacobi)	2003
提出者	Chib & Jacobi (Bayesian formulation); Hahn, Todd & Van der Klaauw (fuzzy RD identification)	Kleibergen & Zivot (2003); Lancaster (2004)
类型	Bayesian causal inference / quasi-experimental design	Causal inference / Bayesian estimation
开创性文献	Hahn, J., Todd, P., & Van der Klaauw, W. (2001). Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design. Review of Economic Studies, 68(1), 201-209.	Kleibergen, F., & Zivot, E. (2003). Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression. Journal of Econometrics, 114(1), 29-72.
别名	Bayesian Fuzzy RD, Bayesian Fuzzy RDD, Fuzzy RD with Bayesian Inference	Bayesian IV, Bayesian 2SLS, Bayesian LIML, BayesIV
相关	5	6
摘要	Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity (Bayesian Fuzzy RD) combines the quasi-experimental logic of fuzzy regression discontinuity design with full Bayesian inference. It estimates a local average treatment effect at a policy threshold where treatment assignment is probabilistic rather than deterministic, placing prior distributions over all unknowns and recovering a complete posterior distribution of the causal effect rather than a single point estimate.	Bayesian Instrumental Variables combines the instrumental variable strategy for addressing endogeneity with Bayesian posterior inference. Instead of relying on asymptotic sampling distributions, it places prior distributions over all structural parameters and recovers a full posterior distribution for the causal effect, providing probability statements about the parameter rather than p-values — especially valuable when instruments are weak or the sample is small.