方法对比

	贝叶斯失效模式与影响分析	故障树分析 (FTA)
领域	实验设计	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1990s–2000s	1981
提出者	Extension of classical FMEA (MIL-STD-1629, 1974) with Bayesian inference formalised in reliability literature from the 1990s onward	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
类型	Probabilistic reliability and risk analysis	Deductive top-down failure analysis
开创性文献	Bowles, J. B., & Peláez, C. E. (1995). Fuzzy logic prioritization of failures in a system failure mode, effects and criticality analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 50(2), 203–213.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
别名	Bayesian FMEA, probabilistic FMEA, B-FMEA, Bayesian risk priority analysis	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
相关	5	3
摘要	Bayesian FMEA extends the classical Failure Mode and Effects Analysis framework by replacing fixed point-estimate risk scores with probability distributions, allowing prior engineering knowledge and observed failure data to be formally combined through Bayes' theorem. The result is a probabilistic Risk Priority Number (RPN) that reflects uncertainty in severity, occurrence, and detectability ratings rather than masking it with single consensus values.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.