方法对比

	贝叶斯事后设计	倾向得分匹配
领域	研究设计	研究统计学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1964 (Kerlinger ex post facto); Bayesian integration from 1990s–2000s onward	1983
提出者	Frederick N. Kerlinger (ex post facto framework); Bayesian extension draws on Laplace and modern Bayesian statistics	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Quantitative observational research design with Bayesian inference	Method
开创性文献	Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Foundations of Behavioral Research (2nd ed.). Holt, Rinehart and Winston.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	Bayesian causal-comparative design, Bayesian after-the-fact design, Bayesian observational causal design, Bayesian retrospective causal study	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	Bayesian ex post facto design investigates possible causal relationships among variables that have already occurred, without researcher manipulation of those variables, and quantifies uncertainty about those relationships using Bayesian statistical inference. The researcher selects groups that differ on an outcome or a presumed cause after the fact, then uses prior knowledge and observed data together — via Bayes' theorem — to estimate credible effect sizes, group differences, or predictors.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.