方法对比

	贝叶斯事后设计	因果比较研究
领域	研究设计	研究设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1964 (Kerlinger ex post facto); Bayesian integration from 1990s–2000s onward	1964
提出者	Frederick N. Kerlinger (ex post facto framework); Bayesian extension draws on Laplace and modern Bayesian statistics	Fred N. Kerlinger
类型	Quantitative observational research design with Bayesian inference	Non-experimental quantitative research design
开创性文献	Kerlinger, F. N. (1973). Foundations of Behavioral Research (2nd ed.). Holt, Rinehart and Winston.	Kerlinger, F. N. (1964). Foundations of Behavioral Research. Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
别名	Bayesian causal-comparative design, Bayesian after-the-fact design, Bayesian observational causal design, Bayesian retrospective causal study	ex post facto research, causal-comparative design, retrospective causal study, CCR
相关	5	3
摘要	Bayesian ex post facto design investigates possible causal relationships among variables that have already occurred, without researcher manipulation of those variables, and quantifies uncertainty about those relationships using Bayesian statistical inference. The researcher selects groups that differ on an outcome or a presumed cause after the fact, then uses prior knowledge and observed data together — via Bayes' theorem — to estimate credible effect sizes, group differences, or predictors.	Causal-comparative research is a non-experimental quantitative design in which the researcher compares two or more groups that already differ on an independent variable — one that was not manipulated — to investigate possible causes or consequences of that difference. Because group membership is pre-existing rather than randomly assigned, the design can suggest causal relationships but cannot establish them with the certainty of a true experiment. It is widely used in education, psychology, and social sciences when experimental manipulation is impractical or unethical.