方法对比

	贝叶斯离散事件仿真	贝叶斯基于智能体的建模
领域	仿真	仿真
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s–2010s	2000s–2010s
提出者	Developed across operations research and Bayesian statistics communities; prominently formalized in health economic simulation in the 2000s–2010s	Sunnaker et al. / Grazzini & Richiardi (among key contributors)
类型	Hybrid simulation-inference framework	Simulation calibration and inference framework
开创性文献	Onggo, B. S., & Kunc, M. (2016). Combining discrete-event simulation and Bayesian updating for incorporating evidence from real-world data. Journal of Simulation, 10(1), 1-12.	Sunnaker, M., Busetto, A. G., Numminen, E., Corander, J., Foll, M., Dessimoz, C. (2013). Approximate Bayesian Computation. PLOS Computational Biology, 9(1), e1002803.
别名	Bayesian DES, BDES, Bayesian event-driven simulation, posterior-driven discrete-event simulation	Bayesian ABM, ABC-ABM, Bayesian Calibration of ABM, Bayesian Agent Simulation
相关	6	5
摘要	Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation (BDES) integrates Bayesian statistical inference with discrete-event simulation. Prior beliefs about system parameters — such as service rates, arrival times, or failure probabilities — are updated with observed data via Bayes' theorem, and the resulting posterior distributions directly drive the simulation engine. This coupling allows modelers to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through event-driven process models.	Bayesian Agent-Based Modeling integrates Bayesian statistical inference with agent-based simulation to calibrate model parameters and quantify uncertainty. Rather than fixing agent rules and parameters by assumption, this approach treats unknown parameters as probability distributions and updates them systematically against observed data, yielding a full posterior over plausible model configurations.