方法对比

	贝叶斯因果效应分析	因果影响分析
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2015	2015
提出者	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Google)	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
类型	Bayesian causal inference / time series	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
开创性文献	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
别名	CausalImpact, Bayesian structural time series causal inference, BSTS causal impact, Bayesian intervention analysis	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
相关	4	5
摘要	Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis uses a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the causal effect of an intervention on a time series outcome. Developed by Brodersen and colleagues at Google in 2015, it builds a probabilistic counterfactual — what the series would have looked like without the intervention — from pre-intervention data and optional control covariates, then compares it with the observed post-intervention values to produce a fully Bayesian posterior over the causal effect.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.