方法对比

	贝叶斯因子检验	贝叶斯推断
领域	贝叶斯	统计学
方法族	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
起源年份	1961	1763
提出者	Harold Jeffreys	Thomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace
类型	Bayesian hypothesis comparison	Probabilistic inference paradigm
开创性文献	Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability (3rd ed.). Clarendon Press / Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0198503682	Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418.
别名	bayes factor, BF10, Bayesian hypothesis test, Bayes Faktörü — Hipotez Testi	Bayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference
相关	3	3
摘要	The Bayes factor test, formalised by Harold Jeffreys in 1961, is a Bayesian method for comparing two competing hypotheses. Rather than returning a binary reject/retain verdict, it produces a continuous ratio BF₁₀ that quantifies how much more (or less) probable the data are under the alternative hypothesis H₁ than under the null hypothesis H₀.	Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités.