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ARIMA(自回归积分滑动平均)模型×向量自回归 (VAR) 模型×
领域计量经济学计量经济学
方法族Regression modelRegression model
起源年份20152005
提出者Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition
类型Univariate time-series modelMultivariate time-series model
开创性文献Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗
别名Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modelivector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon
相关54
摘要ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005).
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ScholarGate方法对比: ARIMA · VAR Model. 于 2026-06-17 检索自 https://scholargate.app/zh/compare