方法对比

	ARIMA（自回归积分滑动平均）模型	指数 GARCH (EGARCH)	长记忆模型（ARFIMA, FIGARCH）
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学	金融学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2015	1991	1980
提出者	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)	Nelson	Granger & Joyeux (ARFIMA); Baillie, Bollerslev & Mikkelsen (FIGARCH)
类型	Univariate time-series model	Conditional volatility model (asymmetric GARCH variant)	Fractionally integrated time series model
开创性文献	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021	Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 59(2), 347-370.	Granger, C. W. J. & Joyeux, R. (1980). An Introduction to Long-Memory Time Series Models and Fractional Differencing. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1(1), 15-29.
别名	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli	exponential GARCH, Nelson's EGARCH, asymmetric GARCH, EGARCH — Üstel GARCH	ARFIMA, FIGARCH, fractionally integrated models, fractional integration
相关	5	4	4
摘要	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).	EGARCH is an asymmetric GARCH variant, introduced by Nelson in 1991, that models the leverage effect in which bad news raises volatility more than good news of the same size. It captures the negative-shock asymmetry of financial return series by modelling the logarithm of the conditional variance.	Long-memory models are fractional-integration methods that capture genuine long memory through a hyperbolically decaying autocorrelation structure. ARFIMA, introduced by Granger and Joyeux (1980), models long memory in return series, while FIGARCH, introduced by Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996), captures long memory in volatility series; the parameter d measures the degree of fractional integration.