方法对比

	自适应多臂试验	自适应实验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s–2010s (MAMS framework formalized c. 2003–2011)	1940s–1970s (sequential foundations); formalised in clinical and behavioural research by 1980s–2000s
提出者	Patrick Royston, Mahesh Parmar, and colleagues (multi-arm multi-stage framework); further developed by James Wason, Thomas Jaki and others	Abraham Wald (sequential analysis foundation); expanded by Robbins, Armitage, and others
类型	Experimental design	Experimental research design
开创性文献	Royston, P., Parmar, M. K. B., & Qian, W. (2003). Novel designs for multi-arm clinical trials with survival outcomes with an application in ovarian cancer. Statistics in Medicine, 22(14), 2239–2256.	Chow, S. C., & Chang, M. (2008). Adaptive Design Methods in Clinical Trials. Chapman and Hall/CRC. ISBN: 978-1584886761
别名	MAMS design, multi-arm adaptive trial, adaptive platform trial, response-adaptive multi-arm experiment	adaptive design, response-adaptive randomization, adaptive trial, adaptive randomization
相关	3	5
摘要	An adaptive multi-arm experiment simultaneously evaluates several treatment conditions against a common control and modifies the trial in real time based on accumulating data — dropping ineffective arms early, reallocating participants toward promising ones, or adjusting sample sizes — all while controlling error rates. The approach maximizes information gained per participant and reduces the time and cost required to identify effective treatments relative to running sequential separate trials.	An adaptive experiment is an experimental design in which pre-specified rules allow the protocol to be modified — such as reallocating participants to better-performing arms, stopping early for efficacy or futility, or changing sample size — based on accumulating interim data, while maintaining statistical validity. Adaptive designs are widely used in clinical trials, behavioural economics, and online platform testing to improve efficiency and ethics without sacrificing inferential rigour.