方法对比

	自适应现场实验	多臂实验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1990s–2000s (formalized in field economics and development research contexts)	1990s–2000s (clinical formalization); multi-arm concept implicit in ANOVA-era factorial designs
提出者	Developed at the intersection of adaptive trial methodology (Berry, Bauer) and field experimentation (Duflo, Kremer, List)	Developed within clinical trials methodology; formalized by Parmar, Royston and colleagues (UK MRC CTU, early 2000s)
类型	Adaptive experimental design conducted in naturalistic settings	Experimental design
开创性文献	Berry, D. A. (2004). Bayesian statistics and the efficiency and ethics of clinical trials. Statistical Science, 19(1), 175–187.	Royston, P., Parmar, M. K. B., & Qian, W. (2003). Novel designs for multi-arm clinical trials with survival outcomes with an application in ovarian cancer. Statistics in Medicine, 22(14), 2239–2256.
别名	adaptive field trial, sequentially adaptive field experiment, responsive field experiment, adaptive randomized field study	multi-arm trial, multiple-arm experiment, multi-group experiment, many-arm design
相关	6	5
摘要	An adaptive field experiment is a randomized study conducted in a real-world environment in which pre-specified decision rules allow the researcher to modify the trial as interim data accumulate — for example, by reallocating participants toward more effective arms, adjusting sample size, or stopping early for efficacy or futility — all while maintaining statistical integrity.	A multi-arm experiment simultaneously compares three or more treatment or intervention conditions — each called an arm — against a shared control or against one another. By testing multiple alternatives in a single study, it yields more information per participant than running separate two-group experiments sequentially, while controlling the overall Type I error rate through pre-specified comparison strategies.