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| Mô hình Tự hồi quy Tham số Thay đổi theo Thời gian (TVP-AR)× | Mô hình Biến động Ngẫu nhiên (Heston)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực≠ | Kinh tế lượng | Tài chính |
| Họ | Regression model | Regression model |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1976–2005 | 1993 |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Cooley & Prescott (1976); further developed by Kim & Nelson (1999) and Cogley & Sargent (2001, 2005) | Steven L. Heston |
| Loại≠ | Time-series model with drifting coefficients | Continuous-time stochastic volatility model |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Cogley, T., & Sargent, T. J. (2005). Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 262-302. DOI ↗ | Heston, S. L. (1993). A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options. Review of Financial Studies, 6(2), 327-343. DOI ↗ |
| Tên gọi khác | TVP-AR, time-varying AR, state-space AR with drifting coefficients, random-walk coefficient AR | Heston model, SV model, continuous-time stochastic volatility, Stokastik Volatilite Modeli (Heston, SV) |
| Liên quan≠ | 4 | 5 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | The Time-Varying Parameter Autoregressive (TVP-AR) model extends the classical AR model by allowing its autoregressive coefficients to drift over time, typically as a random walk. Cast as a state-space system, the model captures gradual structural change in the dynamics of a univariate time series without imposing a fixed break date. | The stochastic volatility model is a continuous-time option-pricing and risk framework in which volatility follows its own random process rather than staying constant. The Heston model, introduced by Steven Heston in 1993, gives the variance a mean-reverting square-root (CIR) dynamic and yields a closed-form option price; it is the continuous-time counterpart of GARCH. |
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