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Động lực học Hệ thống Ngẫu nhiên×Mô hình động lực hệ thống×
Lĩnh vựcMô phỏngMô phỏng
HọProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Năm ra đời1980s–2000s1961
Người khởi xướngJay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchersJay W. Forrester
LoạiContinuous stochastic simulationContinuous simulation / feedback modelling
Công trình gốcSterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
Tên gọi khácSSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamicsstock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation
Liên quan53
Tóm tắtStochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research.
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ScholarGateSo sánh phương pháp: Stochastic System Dynamics · System Dynamics. Truy cập ngày 2026-06-17 từ https://scholargate.app/vi/compare