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Lĩnh vựcMô phỏngMô phỏng
HọProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
Năm ra đời19571980s–2000s
Người khởi xướngGuy H. OrcuttJay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers
LoạiStochastic individual-level simulationContinuous stochastic simulation
Công trình gốcOrcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
Tên gọi khácProbabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSMSSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics
Liên quan65
Tóm tắtStochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs.Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios.
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ScholarGateSo sánh phương pháp: Stochastic Microsimulation · Stochastic System Dynamics. Truy cập ngày 2026-06-17 từ https://scholargate.app/vi/compare