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| Làm mịn hàm mũ đơn và kép (SES / Holt)× | Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)× | Hồi quy Bình phương Tối thiểu Thông thường (OLS)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực | Kinh tế lượng | Kinh tế lượng | Kinh tế lượng |
| Họ | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1957 | 1986 | 2019 |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend) | Tim Bollerslev | Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares |
| Loại≠ | Exponential smoothing forecasting model | Conditional volatility model | Linear regression |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill. link ↗ | Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. DOI ↗ | Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860 |
| Tên gọi khác | SES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt) | GARCH(1,1), generalized ARCH, conditional volatility model, GARCH Modeli | ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu |
| Liên quan≠ | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta. | GARCH is an econometric model for the time-varying volatility of financial time series, introduced by Tim Bollerslev in 1986 as a generalisation of Engle's ARCH model. It treats the conditional variance as a function of past squared shocks and past variances, capturing the volatility clustering seen in returns. | Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). |
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