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Regression Discontinuity in Elections×Thiết kế Gián đoạn Hồi quy (Regression Discontinuity Design - RDD)×
Lĩnh vựcPolitical ScienceSuy luận nhân quả
HọProcess / pipelineRegression model
Năm ra đời20082008
Người khởi xướngDavid S. Lee (electoral application); broader RD traditionImbens & Lemieux (guide to practice); Cattaneo, Idrobo & Titiunik (practical introduction)
LoạiQuasi-experimental causal design using a vote-share thresholdQuasi-experimental causal design
Công trình gốcLee, D. S. (2008). Randomized Experiments from Non-random Selection in U.S. House Elections. Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 675–697. DOI ↗Imbens, G. W., & Lemieux, T. (2008). Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice. Journal of Econometrics, 142(2), 615-635. DOI ↗
Tên gọi khácClose-election RD, Electoral regression discontinuity, Vote-share RD design, Incumbency-advantage RDRDD, regression discontinuity design, sharp RDD, fuzzy RDD
Liên quan35
Tóm tắtRegression discontinuity in elections is a quasi-experimental design that exploits the sharp winning threshold in electoral contests to estimate causal effects of holding office. Just above the threshold a candidate or party wins; just below, it loses. In very close races, which side ends up just over the line is plausibly as good as random, so comparing the later outcomes of bare winners and bare losers identifies the causal effect of winning — most famously the incumbency advantage — without confounding by candidate or district quality.Regression Discontinuity Design is a quasi-experimental method that identifies a causal effect by locally comparing units just above and just below a cutoff on a continuous assignment (running) variable. Formalised for applied work by Imbens and Lemieux (2008) and developed as a practical framework by Cattaneo, Idrobo, and Titiunik (2020), it estimates a local average treatment effect (LATE) at the threshold.
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