So sánh phương pháp

	Mô phỏng Monte Carlo Kịch bản Chính sách	Mô phỏng Monte Carlo
Lĩnh vực	Mô phỏng	Ra quyết định
Họ	Process / pipeline	MCDM
Năm ra đời	1990s–2000s	1949
Người khởi xướng	Developed within health economics and policy modeling communities; foundational work by Briggs, Claxton, and Sculpher	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S.
Loại	Probabilistic scenario simulation	Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation
Công trình gốc	Briggs, A. H., Claxton, K., & Sculpher, M. J. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198526629	Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association
Tên gọi khác	PS-MCS, Policy MC Simulation, Scenario-Based Monte Carlo, Policy Uncertainty Simulation	—
Liên quan	4	0
Tóm tắt	Policy Scenario Monte Carlo Simulation combines pre-defined discrete policy scenarios with probabilistic Monte Carlo sampling to quantify uncertainty in outcomes across each scenario. Rather than evaluating a single stochastic model, analysts define two or more policy alternatives and run thousands of Monte Carlo iterations within each, producing probability distributions of outcomes that support evidence-based policy comparison.	MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result.