So sánh phương pháp

	PESTEL Macro-Environmental Scanning	Trend Impact Analysis
Lĩnh vực	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
Họ	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Năm ra đời	2003	1972
Người khởi xướng	Strategic-management macro-environmental analysis tradition; linked to foresight input stage by Joseph Voros	Theodore J. Gordon (The Futures Group / Millennium Project)
Loại	Structured macro-environmental audit feeding strategy	Probabilistic trend-extrapolation pipeline perturbed by future events
Công trình gốc	Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.	Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116.
Tên gọi khác	PESTEL Analysis, PESTLE Analysis, Macro-Environmental Audit, PEST/PESTEL Scanning	TIA, Trend-Impact Forecasting, Probabilistic Trend Perturbation, Event-Adjusted Trend Extrapolation
Liên quan	4	3
Tóm tắt	PESTEL macro-environmental scanning is a structured audit of the forces in an organization's wider operating environment, organized into six factor classes: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal. Unlike open-ended horizon scanning, PESTEL is typically run as a deliberate audit that enumerates the specific drivers in each class, gathers evidence for them, and assesses their likely impact and direction so that the findings can feed directly into strategy formulation. It operationalizes the input stage of Joseph Voros's generic foresight process while retaining its roots in strategic management, where the explicit inclusion of a Legal dimension makes it well suited to regulated industries and compliance-sensitive decisions. As catalogued in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, macro-environmental scanning of this kind is a foundational discipline that grounds long-range strategy in a systematic reading of external forces rather than in the assumptions of the moment.	Trend impact analysis (TIA) is a forecasting method that marries quantitative extrapolation with expert judgment about disruptive future events. Developed by Theodore Gordon and colleagues at The Futures Group in the early 1970s and later codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, it starts from a 'surprise-free' baseline produced by fitting and projecting a historical time series. It then asks which unprecedented events — events with no historical analog that ordinary extrapolation cannot anticipate — could deflect that trend, and with what probability, magnitude, and timing. Through Monte Carlo simulation those probabilistic impacts perturb the baseline, yielding not a single line but a probability envelope that shows how the trend might bend if the unexpected occurs.