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Mô hình Phân phối Tổn thất×Lý thuyết Độ tin cậy×Lý thuyết Phá sản×
Lĩnh vựcKhoa học định phí bảo hiểmKhoa học định phí bảo hiểmKhoa học định phí bảo hiểm
HọRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Năm ra đời201219672010
Người khởi xướngKlugman, Panjer & WillmotHans BühlmannFilip Lundberg; Harald Cramér
LoạiParametric probability modelWeighted linear blend of individual and collective experienceStochastic risk process model
Công trình gốcKlugman, S. A., Panjer, H. H., & Willmot, G. E. (2012). Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (4th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-118-31532-3Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207. DOI ↗Asmussen, S., & Albrecher, H. (2010). Ruin Probabilities (2nd ed.). World Scientific. ISBN: 978-981-4282-52-9
Tên gọi khácSeverity-Frequency Model, Aggregate Loss Model, Claim Size Distribution Model, Hasar Dağılımı ModeliBühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik TeorisiCollective Risk Theory, Cramér-Lundberg Theory, Probability of Ruin Analysis, Hasar Süreci Çöküş Teorisi
Liên quan333
Tóm tắtA Loss Distribution Model is a parametric statistical framework used in actuarial science to characterise the probabilistic behaviour of insurance claim amounts and frequencies. Developed comprehensively by Klugman, Panjer, and Willmot in their foundational text Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (first edition 1998, fourth edition 2012), these models underpin premium rating, reserving, reinsurance pricing, and regulatory capital calculations across the insurance and risk-management industries.Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles.Ruin Theory models the stochastic surplus process of an insurance company to quantify the probability that accumulated losses eventually exceed available capital. Introduced by Filip Lundberg in his 1903 doctoral thesis and rigorously unified by Harald Cramér in 1930, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes premiums arrive at a constant rate, claims follow a compound Poisson process, and individual claim sizes are independent and identically distributed. It remains the foundational framework of collective risk theory in actuarial science.
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ScholarGateSo sánh phương pháp: Loss Distribution Model · Credibility Theory · Ruin Theory. Truy cập ngày 2026-06-20 từ https://scholargate.app/vi/compare