So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình AR Fourier	Mô hình ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	2012	1970
Người khởi xướng	Enders & Lee	George Box and Gwilym Jenkins
Loại	Time series model with Fourier augmentation	Time series forecasting model
Công trình gốc	Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599.	Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day.
Tên gọi khác	Fourier AR, trigonometric AR model, smooth transition AR with Fourier terms, FAR model	ARIMA, Box-Jenkins model, integrated ARMA, ARIMA(p,d,q)
Liên quan	6	6
Tóm tắt	The Fourier AR model extends the standard autoregressive specification by adding trigonometric (sine and cosine) terms to the deterministic component. This allows the model to capture smooth, gradual shifts in the mean or trend of a time series without requiring the researcher to locate or count structural break points explicitly.	The ARIMA(p,d,q) model is the standard workhorse for univariate time series forecasting. It combines autoregressive terms (past values), differencing to induce stationarity, and moving average terms (past shocks) into a unified linear framework. Developed by Box and Jenkins (1970), it remains one of the most widely applied models in econometrics and applied statistics.