So sánh phương pháp

	TGARCH Bayes (Mô hình GARCH Ngưỡng với Ước lượng Bayes)	Mô hình TGARCH (Threshold GARCH)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	1994 / 2008	1993-1994
Người khởi xướng	Zakoian (1994) for TGARCH; Bayesian estimation formalized by Ardia (2008)	Zakoian (1994); Glosten, Jagannathan & Runkle (1993)
Loại	Volatility model with asymmetric threshold and Bayesian inference	Asymmetric volatility model
Công trình gốc	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
Tên gọi khác	Bayesian TGARCH, Bayesian GJR-GARCH, Threshold GARCH with Bayesian estimation, TGARCH-B	Threshold GARCH, TGARCH, GJR-GARCH, asymmetric GARCH
Liên quan	6	6
Tóm tắt	Bayesian TGARCH combines the Threshold GARCH volatility model — which captures the asymmetric response of volatility to positive versus negative shocks — with full Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. The result is a principled, uncertainty-aware framework for modeling leverage effects and fat-tailed financial returns.	The Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) model extends the standard GARCH framework by allowing positive and negative return shocks to have asymmetric effects on conditional variance. Negative shocks — bad news — typically amplify volatility more than positive shocks of the same magnitude, a stylised fact known as the leverage effect. TGARCH captures this asymmetry through a threshold indicator that switches on when the previous period's shock was negative.