So sánh phương pháp

	Mô hình Tự hồi quy Bayes (AR)	Mô hình Tự hồi quy Vector (VAR)
Lĩnh vực	Kinh tế lượng	Kinh tế lượng
Họ	Regression model	Regression model
Năm ra đời	1971	1980
Người khởi xướng	Arnold Zellner; foundational Bayesian time-series work by West & Harrison	Christopher A. Sims
Loại	Bayesian time-series model	Multivariate time-series model
Công trình gốc	Zellner, A. (1971). An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0471169376	Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48.
Tên gọi khác	Bayesian autoregressive model, BAR model, Bayesian AR, Bayesian time-series autoregression	VAR, VAR model, vector autoregressive model, multivariate autoregression
Liên quan	6	5
Tóm tắt	The Bayesian AR model estimates an autoregressive time-series process by combining a likelihood derived from the AR structure with prior distributions over the lag coefficients and error variance. Rather than producing single point estimates, it yields full posterior distributions, enabling principled uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasting.	Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model in which each variable is regressed on its own lags and the lags of all other variables in the system. Originally proposed by Sims (1980) as a data-driven alternative to large structural macroeconomic models, VAR has become the standard workhorse for dynamic analysis in empirical economics and finance.