So sánh phương pháp
Xem các phương pháp đã chọn cạnh nhau; những hàng khác biệt được làm nổi bật.
| Mô hình ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average)× | Mô hình SARIMA× | |
|---|---|---|
| Lĩnh vực | Kinh tế lượng | Kinh tế lượng |
| Họ | Regression model | Regression model |
| Năm ra đời≠ | 1970 | 1970 (first edition); 1976 (revised) |
| Người khởi xướng≠ | George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins | Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel |
| Loại≠ | Time series model | Seasonal time series model |
| Công trình gốc≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. link ↗ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0130607744 |
| Tên gọi khác | ARMA, Box-Jenkins model, autoregressive moving average, AR(p)MA(q) | SARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, ARIMA with seasonal component |
| Liên quan | 5 | 5 |
| Tóm tắt≠ | The ARMA(p,q) model describes a stationary time series as a combination of two components: an autoregressive part that regresses the current value on its own past p values, and a moving average part that accounts for past q error terms. It is the foundational framework of the Box-Jenkins methodology for univariate time series modelling and short-run forecasting. | SARIMA extends ARIMA by adding seasonal autoregressive and moving-average operators to capture repeating patterns at fixed intervals — such as monthly, quarterly, or annual cycles. Denoted SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, it is the standard workhorse for univariate seasonal time series forecasting in econometrics, economics, and official statistics. |
| ScholarGateBộ dữ liệu ↗ |
|
|