Machine learning
DeepAR
DeepAR is Amazon's industrial forecasting model, introduced by Salinas, Flunkert and Gasthaus (2017; published 2020), that uses an autoregressive recurrent neural network to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution at each step, producing a confidence interval rather than a single point forecast. It can model many related time series jointly within one model.
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Sources
- Salinas, D., Flunkert, V., Gasthaus, J. & Januschowski, T. (2020). DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(3), 1181–1191. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.07.001 ↗
- Salinas, D., Flunkert, V. & Gasthaus, J. (2017). DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks. arXiv:1704.04110. link ↗