เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	Survival Analysis of First Migration	Life-Course Event History of Migration
สาขาวิชา	Migration Studies	Migration Studies
ตระกูล	Survival analysis	Survival analysis
ปีกำเนิด	1993	1990
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Hans-Peter Blossfeld & Götz Rohwer; Clara Mulder	Daniel Courgeau; Hill Kulu & Nadja Milewski
ประเภท	Continuous-time hazard model of the first migration event	Multi-state, multi-episode event-history model of interdependent life-course processes
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Blossfeld, H.-P., & Rohwer, G. (2002). Techniques of Event History Modeling: New Approaches to Causal Analysis (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum. ISBN: 9780805840919	Kulu, H., & Milewski, N. (2007). Family Change and Migration in the Life Course: An Introduction. Demographic Research, 17, 567-590.
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	Hazard Model of First Move, Time-to-First-Migration Analysis, Age-at-First-Migration Survival Model, First-Move Event-History Analysis	Multi-State Migration Event History, Interdependent Processes Migration Model, Parallel-Careers Hazard Analysis, Simultaneous-Equations Event History of Migration
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	3	3
สรุป	Survival analysis of first migration treats the move out of one's place of origin as a timed event and asks not whether but when a person first migrates. Rather than modeling a binary 'migrated or not' outcome, it follows individuals from the moment they become at risk and models the instantaneous hazard of a first move as a function of age and changing life circumstances. The approach, codified for the social sciences by Blossfeld and Rohwer's event-history framework and applied to migration biographies by Clara Mulder, handles the two features that defeat ordinary regression: censoring, because most people in a sample have not yet migrated when observed, and time-varying covariates, because the things that trigger a move — finishing school, finding a job, forming a union — themselves change over time. The result is an estimate of how the risk of a first move rises and falls across the life course and how it responds to time-dependent conditions. It can be fitted nonparametrically with a Cox model or with a parametric baseline when the shape of age dependence is of interest.	Life-course event-history analysis treats migration not as an isolated event but as one thread in a web of parallel biographies — partnership, childbearing, education, and employment — that unfold together and influence one another over a lifetime. Building on Daniel Courgeau's program of analyzing migration alongside family and career and on Kulu and Milewski's synthesis of family change and migration, the approach models several multi-state, multi-episode processes at once and asks how transitions in one career trigger or delay moves in another. Methodologically it generalizes the single-event hazard model in three ways: it allows repeated episodes (people move more than once and pass through many states), it lets the current states of parallel processes enter as time-varying causes of migration, and, in its most demanding form, it estimates the processes jointly as a simultaneous-equations system with correlated unobserved heterogeneity to separate genuine causal interdependence from shared selection. The payoff is a model of migration that respects its embeddedness in the rest of the life course.