เปรียบเทียบวิธี
ดูวิธีที่เลือกเทียบกันแบบเคียงข้าง แถวที่ต่างกันจะถูกเน้นไว้
| Policy Scenario System Dynamics× | พลวัตระบบเชิงสุ่ม× | |
|---|---|---|
| สาขาวิชา | การจำลอง | การจำลอง |
| ตระกูล | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| ปีกำเนิด≠ | 1960s–1990s | 1980s–2000s |
| ผู้ริเริ่ม≠ | Forrester, J. W. (system dynamics); scenario integration formalized by Sterman and others | Jay W. Forrester (base SD); stochastic extensions developed through 1980s–2000s by multiple researchers |
| ประเภท≠ | Simulation-based policy analysis | Continuous stochastic simulation |
| แหล่งต้นตำรับ≠ | Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9780072389159 | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| ชื่อเรียกอื่น | PSSD, Policy SD Simulation, Scenario-Based System Dynamics, Policy Systems Modeling | SSD, stochastic stock-flow modelling, probabilistic system dynamics, random system dynamics |
| ที่เกี่ยวข้อง | 5 | 5 |
| สรุป≠ | Policy Scenario System Dynamics combines system dynamics modeling with structured scenario analysis to evaluate how different policy interventions affect complex, feedback-driven systems over time. By running multiple policy scenarios through a calibrated stock-and-flow model, analysts can compare long-run outcomes, identify leverage points, and anticipate unintended consequences before real-world implementation. | Stochastic System Dynamics (SSD) extends conventional system dynamics by replacing fixed parameter values and deterministic flow equations with probability distributions and random draws. Running many replications of the stock-flow model yields probabilistic trajectories — confidence bands rather than single lines — enabling rigorous uncertainty quantification and risk analysis in complex feedback systems such as epidemic models, supply chains, and energy policy scenarios. |
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