เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	แบบจำลอง Lee-Carter	แบบจำลอง ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
สาขาวิชา	ประชากรศาสตร์	เศรษฐมิติ
ตระกูล	Regression model	Regression model
ปีกำเนิด	1992	2015
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter	Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology)
ประเภท	Stochastic mortality forecasting model	Univariate time-series model
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.	Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli	Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	2	5
สรุป	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.	ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015).