เปรียบเทียบวิธี

	การเฉลี่ยแบบจำลองแบบเบย์แบบลำดับชั้น	การเฉลี่ยแบบจำลองแบบเบย์ (Bayesian Model Averaging - BMA)
สาขาวิชา	เบย์	เบย์
ตระกูล	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
ปีกำเนิด	1999–2000s	1999
ผู้ริเริ่ม	Extension formalised by Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, and Volinsky; hierarchical application developed through 1990s–2000s Bayesian literature	Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery & Volinsky
ประเภท	Bayesian model averaging within hierarchical models	Bayesian model averaging
แหล่งต้นตำรับ	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–417.	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401.
ชื่อเรียกอื่น	HBMA, hierarchical BMA, multilevel Bayesian model averaging, Bayesian model averaging in hierarchical models	BMA, Bayesian model combination, Bayesian Model Ortalaması (BMA)
ที่เกี่ยวข้อง	5	5
สรุป	Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) combines Bayesian model averaging with hierarchical model structure, averaging posterior quantities over a set of candidate models weighted by each model's posterior probability. Rather than selecting a single best model, HBMA propagates model uncertainty through a hierarchical framework, producing predictions and parameter estimates that honestly reflect uncertainty about which model is correct.	Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), formalised as a tutorial by Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery and Volinsky in 1999, addresses model uncertainty by averaging over all plausible model specifications rather than selecting a single best model. Each candidate model receives a posterior probability that reflects how well it fits the data given a prior, and predictions or coefficient estimates are formed as weighted averages across the entire model space. This approach reduces the bias and overconfidence that arise when a single selected model is treated as the true one.